I once heard a minister say that church members vote with their feet. If things really go sour for whatever reasons but especially if its bad leadership, people will eventually pull away and ultimately leave when they are unheard.
If you look carefully into these stats you will find it reveals in the Minneapolis area a clear decline that may have started around 2011 for the GCM churches. Of course it doesn't show exactly where they all went. Boots were walking out of the GCM churches faster than they new folks were coming in. Did someone say high TURNOVER? By my observation.. some of those Bloomington members ended up in River Valley churches... mostly in Apple Valley. (I have nicknamed River Valley as Evergreen 2.0) as so many have gone to that healthier and growing church. (RV is Assemblies of God and has another affiliation) Eaglebrook has picked up a few of them. (Converge churches) I am not sure about the rest though. Of course there is always the shuffling among the Evergreen churches due to various factors.
To be fair... GCM is not the only protestant church that saw declines. The pandemic has changed a number of local churches also and that would be a great followup. These numbers for multisite churches clearly show great gains for Eaglebrook and River Valley. They both have embraced growth by new conversions. I remember that was a value at Evergreen. But today it would seem they are either attempting to go back in that direction or in a stall pattern in the journey. I cannot speak on that since I don't attend.
http://churchscouts.net/0105171In briefing 5 chart 4 it clearly shows that the local GCM churches were at a loss
https://assets.website-files.com/5c4373efda1e2f3757228b42/5c4373efda1e2f55b7228c29_Briefing8.pdfScroll down to
Multisite churches by Parentt report and it shows Evegreen lost 340 congregates from 2011 to 2016. It doesn't show the fall out from the Mark Darling scandal and whatever may have happened due to the pandemic.
I would not be surprised if the new name of Hometown is now seeing enough new folks at the Evegreen locations: Bloomington, Lakeville, and New Hope. I so wonder how they handle the history of the local churches and the GCM story in the new member classes. History tells me its never addressed. Prove me wrong please, anyone.